What's On My Mind: How to get the Flywheels Moving Again
April 16th marks my one month anniversary at home. It's felt a lot longer, but who's counting?
*/ scratches another line into the wall /*
The important thing is that my family and friends appear to be weathering the situation well. One person I know had a confirmed COVID-19 case and she's completely recovered. Many of these same people remain fully employed. If there's one thing I've realized throughout this entire situation, it's how fortunate many of us are. Coronavirus has thrusted the divide between those of us with plenty and those of us with few into the spotlight again. I have things to say about this, but I'm going to save that for another post on another day.
Today, what's on my mind, is flywheels.
The Flywheel Concept
If you're not familiar with the flywheel analogy, I recommend you grab a copy of Good to Great* by Jim Collins. In the book, Collins researches the main characteristics that good companies used to become great. A major part of the Good to Great equation is the flywheel concept.
The flywheel is what gives your company momentum. It's the small steps you take as a business owner, CEO, or leader that gets your customers and teams fired up. As you generate progress, the flywheel gains speed. The goal is to build up momentum so the flywheel, and your business, start spinning on their own.
Before Coronavirus, many companies had their flywheels spinning pretty fast. The market was trucking along. Unemployment was low. Most sectors were growing, at some clip, year-over-year.
Then, in a matter of days, everyone's flywheels stopped. Grinding and screeching to a halt. Business owners who were enjoying steady revenues and growth had to close their doors - to no fault of their own. What might have taken 5, 10, 12 years to get the flywheel moving stopped in matter of 5, 10, 12 DAYS. It's an economic downturn that we've never seen before. One that we hopefully never see again.
The ramifications from the stay-at-home orders and Coronavirus will be with us for a while. Flywheels won't gain their momentum back overnight, and 22 million people won't be put back to work in a week. At this point, it's hard to say when stay-at-home orders might get lifted. Two things are almost certain though:
They're going to get lifted
Life may look very different when that happens
Lifting Restrictions
Germany has begun reopening certain sectors of their economy as of this week. Israel has formulated a phased approach to their reopening. President Trump issued guidelines, but is leaving it up to each U.S. state governor to plan how they reopen.
A plan that includes a phased approach seems best. You start small. Wait a certain amount of time (14 days seems to be the consensus) to see how the virus reacts and if hotspots emerge. Then, move on to the next phase. People heading back to work will lead to more positive cases, especially with no vaccine. The idea is to isolate hotspots that appear and contain them as fast as possible. To do this requires implementing ways to track exposure, such as contact tracing. If we track the spread and contain it, then healthcare systems don't get over-crowded. Lifting stay-at-home orders doesn't mean people won't get sick. It means governments believe they have the capacity to care for the ones that do.
Who knows when New York or other locked down states start to reopen. A handful of states never implemented stay-at-home orders to begin with. We also have Americans in the midwest and south protesting to end their lockdown orders. They claim laws forcing them to stay inside and wear a mask in public infringes their rights. I'm usually for individual rights, but in this case, I can't defend these protests. Another person's right to live outweighs your feeling of inconvenience. We can’t trust the public to do the right thing, not when they’re coughing on others in grocery stores as a joke.
This is why we need rules. Society can't be trusted.
The point is, there's no need to rush anything. The economy is sinking (or sunk, depending on your view). It's not going to come roaring back if you open tomorrow versus next month. As Robert Reich wrote in The Guardian,
"The economy will fully reopen only when the vast majority of Americans feel it’s safe to return..."
At this point, we're not there. There's also an advantage to letting other countries go first. Officials here can see how it goes and fast-follow - implementing a reopen strategy building off what works in Europe.
Life After Reopening
How will life look when things start to reopen?
Not the same as it did in January, that's for sure.
For starters, we need to assume that social distancing guidelines will remain in place until a vaccine gets developed. This may include other protective measures, like wearing a mask in public. I don't know how many of you have visited a grocery store recently, but there's a layer of anxiety tied to grocery shopping that's never existed before. Face masks keep you from seeing that friendly smile from the cashier checking you out. Arrows on the floor mark "up" and "down" aisles. There's hesitation and angst when you and another shopper end up in the same part of an aisle together. Some stores are limiting the number of patrons allowed in at the same time (this hasn't happened at my store yet). This all adds to the stress already caused by empty shelves, long lines, and not being able to buy what you need.
In short, grocery shopping sucks.
The good news? Most supermarkets have enough room for comfortable social distancing. Many aisles are wide enough for people to pass by side-by-side. Checkout lines also have enough room to allow six feet between people standing in line. There are, however, other places where we won't find a luxury of space when they reopen.
The checkout line at my local market. Stretched longer due social distancing between carts.
Reopening Restaurants
Can social distancing measures apply to places like restaurants?
Maybe. There are a few ways to look at it. Do you only seat half the restaurant at a time? Are tables removed and guests only seated at booths? The configuration of the floor space is going to matter... a lot. Larger restaurants may have a distinct advantage over smaller cafes with limited square footage.
There's also the question of adherence to guidelines that are still in place. Will health inspectors inspect floor layouts before deciding if a restaurant can reopen? Who will police the distancing inside? What good are guidelines for reopening if you don't have someone in place to enforce them?
Aside from the layout changes, owners will also need to consider the ambiance and "diner experience." Do waiters and waitresses take orders and bring out meals in masks and gloves? Will people trust that their waitstaff are keeping their gloves and masks on the entire time, including when they head back to the kitchen. In this type of environment, will people even go out for sit-down dinners? We had a lot of restaurants in our area offering takeout food, but many have decided to close because it made better financial sense. Without a sit-down atmosphere and service, will it be worth it for some restaurants to even reopen?
Reopening Schools
What about schools? It will be a tough sell if people need to go back to work and the school systems are still closed. This has already been a struggle for many first responders and essential workers. Not only have they had to find childcare, since many daycares are also closed, but they're quarantining themselves after work to keep their families safe. A nurse I know has been living in a camper outside of her house to keep the risk to her family down. After sacrificing so much on a daily basis they can't even hug their children or sleep in their own beds at night. They deserve our thanks and much more!
Schools, and particularly school buses, can be great conduits for spreading a virus. We all know the story. Little Tammy gets on the bus with a stomach bug and pretty soon every kid on the route starts with symptoms. Public transportation is why the virus spread so fast through New York City. We also know that the virus doesn't have the same effect on children. In theory, we could be dealing with hundreds of children spreading Coronavirus around without knowing it.
How can we approach opening schools while managing the potential spread of the virus?
One option is to put in place drop-off only procedures. We keep bus routes open for children who live a certain number of miles away from school, but urge parents with the capacity to drop kids off instead. With this type of plan, we contain children to a familiar environment on their way to and from school.
Will children, teachers, and staff need to wear masks and gloves while in school? It's an option that will need looking at, but at that point, what kind of environment are our children going back to? Think about my example of expressionless cashiers at the market. Now imagine a kindergarten student on their first day at a new school. They'll be unable to see anyone's full face. Children look to facial cues to read a person's demeanor as much as adults. Older children (say grades four and up) should understand what's going on. A four, five or six year old not being able to see a teacher's smile is a big deal. At that point, is it worth sending a child back to school at all?
Recreational Activities
A lot of people are talking about lifting restrictions on recreational activities and sporting events. In some cases this is a no brainer. Marinas and golf courses should have never closed in New York to begin with. You can social distance with ease on a golf course without a motorized cart. Coronavirus won't dramatically spread from launching a boat on the Hudson River either (unless you're launching the Queen Mary).
There are other sporting activities that would need to remain off-limits. This includes contact sports, bowling alleys, pool halls, and other activities where you need to rent equipment. Unfortunately, this will likely include gyms. Virus particles flinging around in your sweat as you run on the treadmill isn't good for anybody.
We also need to examine the idea of having professional sports continue without audiences. Governor Cuomo has already suggested that Major League Baseball could be back up and running soon. His idea is to have them start in empty stadiums and slowly bring the crowds back. That may be great for the first few games, but at a certain point, you have to question the entertainment value of this approach.
For starters, teams playing in empty stadiums will suffer from lack of energy. Imagine Tom Brady returning to Gillette Stadium to play the Patriots. Millions will tune in to watch, but without fans in the stands, the atmosphere won't be the same. Athletes feed off crowd energy. Without it, you're watching a glorified scrimmage. If you've ever watched a preseason football game it gives you an idea of what I'm talking about... just dial THAT energy level down 10 or 11 notches.
There will be a bump in ratings at the start, since there's not much else to do and people are craving sports of any kind. It's unlikely to last though. The first time Mike Trout cracks a home run in an empty Angel Stadium people will get excited.
BASEBALL IS BACK BABY!
After the thirtieth home run without a crowd cheering? It's going to get old. Then, in a few months, maybe you start selling some tickets and social distance people in the stadium. You could even offer a mask and gloves appreciation day!
Will people show up?
Sure. Though it makes me wonder if ticket sales will cover operating costs. We have to assume people will second guess buying that hot dog, if the concession stands are even open. It also means Aaron Judge's salary would have to come down a whole hell of a lot.
The Real Issue with Reopening Things
There is one issue that threads through all three of the scenarios I've mentioned: restaurants, schools, and stadiums. That is, the funneled entry and exit points that exist inside most buildings. Most notable being the restrooms.
These areas with one entry and one exit will be hard to manage from a cleanliness and social distance perspective. Even if you prop open main doors so people don't have to touch door handles. What about stalls? Instinctively, people will take their gloves off to use the restroom, and of course, wash their hands. This simple act of removing gloves to clean your hands could expose you to the virus.
There's no question that we will need to come out of lockdown sooner rather than later. Our economy needs to start healing itself. Flywheels can't stay still for too long. The more time companies remain close, the harder it becomes to build back momentum. We risk thousands of flywheels never starting again. We also can't rely on the Federal Government to keep producing stimulus cash (I disagree with calling this infusion a bailout - ask me why if you like).
What we need to do is be smart about coming out of lockdown. We can't rush this or we'll end up in the same position we are now, or worse. Life can return to what it once was, but not before we sacrifice a bit more. For many of us, working from home with our kids and families who are safe, isn't sacrificing much at all. We may have to dig deeper and prepare for a different world. One where things aren't what we remember them as. We can do it. We only need to be patient and let things unfold the way they need to.
* The link I provided to purchase Good to Great is an affiliate link to bookshop.org. If you’d like to purchase the book through here, I will receive a small monetary bump. You’ll also help independent bookstores stay afloat.